Update: Over at Fruits and Votes, Matthew has a very interesting poli-sci-mathematics based
, taking some standard formulas used to project seats based on polls and adapting them to some of the Canadian federal election, uh, eccentricities. I never knew such formulas existed - now I'm interested to see how they do.
Meanwhile, if I had to pick someome to predict B.C. results for me with money on the line, I'd get Sacha to do it
. Still on B.C., Will McMartin at the Tyee is a funny writer, but I'm not sure I trust him on his predictions
, especially after the municipal elections...
Well, I found myself with a little free time so I thought I'd try to do a thorough job of making some election predictions. Now, I'm under no illusions that putting in more effort will help improve my fairly poor recent predictions, but I just thought it would be fun.
First, some resources:
The UBC Election Stock Market
- when people have money on the line, they take things seriously.
The election prediction project
: A riding by riding analysis
The official results
from last time.
Results from last time, riding by riding
, at a glance.Long term results
Hill & Knowlton's Election Predictor
A summary of the polls
More polling data
One last poll aggregator
The percentages of the vote each party received last time, by province:
Province |Lib | CPC | NDP | GRN | Bloc | Oth
Newfoundland | 48 | 32 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1
P.E.I. | 53 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0
Nova Scotia | 40 | 28 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0
New Brunswick | 45 | 31 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0
Quebec | 34 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 49 | 0
Ontario | 45 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0
Manitoba | 33 | 39 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0
Saskatchewan | 27 | 42 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 5
Alberta | 22 | 62 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0
B.C. | 29 | 36 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0
Since polls often have regional breakdowns, a regional breakdown of the 2004 results is useful as well.
Atlantic | 44 | 30 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0
Prairies | 25 | 53 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0
Man/Sask | 30 | 40 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 1
OK, let's start in the East, comparing last elections results in Atlantic Canada to recent polls (keeping in mind that recent polls are all over the map and have high margins of error:
Atlantic (2004)| 44 | 30 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0
Atlantic (poll)| 37 | 38 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0
So basically, across the region we're looking at a 7 point Liberal to Conservative swing, with momentum on the side of the Conservatives and NDP as of the last polls.Newfoundland:
Last time: | 48 | 32 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1
A somewhat recent poll (it preceded a run-up in Conservative support in the Atlantic region after the debates) puts the Liberals at 46 and the Conservatives at 40% and the NDP at 11%.
Taking it all into consideration, I'll say:
Avalon: Conservative (won easily by Efford (LIB) last time, but he's not running)
Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor: Liberal
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte: Liberal
Random-Burin-St. Georges: Liberal (much as I hate to try and predict an outcome in a riding named 'Random')
St. John's East: Conservative
St. John's South-Mount Pearl: Conservative
Total: Liberal 4 (-1) Conservative 3 (+1)P.E.I.
Last Time: | 53 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0
It will take the full 7 or point swing to the Conservatives to even make these ridings close. Election Prediction Project lists Charlottetown as the one riding too close to call. Based on results last time, Mapleque is the most likely to swing Conservative. Still, islanders were scared to change their electoral system and I'm skeptical they're going to change any of their MP's, either. If the Liberals lose more than one here, they're in for a very long night.
Total: Liberal 4 (no change)Nova Scotia
Last Time | 40 | 28 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0
Cape Breton-Canso: Liberal
Central Nova: Conservative (Peter Mackay's riding)
Dartmouth Cole-Harbour: Liberal (this one is pretty wide open)
Halifax: NDP (Alexa McDonough's riding - students don't vote in big numbers but it should still help the NDP having them on campus for this election)
Halifax West: Liberal
Kings-Hants: tough one. I noted a 7-8% swing from the Liberals to the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada - it would take a 7.5% swing to unseat Scott Brison. Of course Brison is no stranger to swinging between the two parties, let's go with the incumbent: Liberal
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley (formerly North Nova - the printing budget just went through the roof!): Conservative, in a walk.
Sackville-Eastern Shore: NDP
South Shore-St. Margaret's: Conservative
West Nova: Conservative: Could be another tight one (or even an easy Liberal win), but I gave the earlier close call (Brison) to the Libs, so I'll give this one to the Conservatives
Total: Liberal 5 (-1), Conservative 4 (+1), NDP 2 (nc)New Brunswick
Last Time | 45 | 31 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0
Fredericton: Liberal (Could be tight for cabinet member Andy Scott in this one, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose)
Fundy Royal: Conservative
Madawaska-Restigouche: Liberal (this is a tough one, but maybe the advantage of incumbency will be enough for the Libs here
Miramichi: Conservative (I've called a couple of close ones for the Libs, so best to call one Conservative to balance out)
New Brunswick Southwest (formerly St. Croix-Belleisle): Conservative
Total: Conservative 5 (+3), Liberal 4 (-3), NDP 1 (nc)Quebec
Comparing last time with a composite estimate of recent polls
2004 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 49 | 0
Poll | 18 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 46 | 0
These predictions will be tough, as I'm too far away to have a good sense of which ridings all those new Conservative voters (if they hold true at the polls) are going to show up in.
Ahuntsic: Bloc (tight one, potentially)
Bourassa: Bloc (Coderre's riding, could well stay Liberal)
Brossard--La Prairie: Bloc
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord: Bloc
Gatineau: Bloc (another interesting race, Con/Lib vote splitting should benefit the Bloc here, as in much of the province)
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia: Bloc
Hull--Aylmer: Liberal (grim news for the Liberals if they lose this long time Liberal riding, but it could happen)
Jeanne-Le Ber: Bloc
La Pointe-de-l'ile: Bloc
LaSalle--Émard: Liberal (Paul Martin's riding)
Laurier--Sainte-Mari: Bloc (Gilles Duceppe's riding)
Laval--Les Iles: Bloc (another potential bloc pickup due to the Con-Lib split)
Lévis--Bellechasse: Bloc (although the numbers sugest this could be a surprise Con pickup)
Lotbinière--Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: Bloc Another one the Cons could make close, or win)
Mount Royal: Liberal
Outremont: Liberal (Barely, Jean Lapierre's riding, probably the best chance for the NDP in Quebec, but that isn't saying a lot)
Papineau: Bloc (Petigrew's riding)
Pontiac Quebec: Conservative
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier: Independent (André Arthur) Wikpedia has some history
on Arthur and the Globe did a (subscriber only) story
on him. A popular former talk radio host, a recent Decima poll
gave him 36% of the vote, with 30% likely being enough to take this 4 way race.
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques: Bloc
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie: Bloc
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville: Liberal (Stéphane Dion's riding)
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel: Liberal (Notwithstanding that it used to be Gagiano's riding)
Shefford: Bloc (could be interesting)
Verchères--Les Patriotes: Bloc
Westmount--Ville-Marie: Liberal (Robillard's riding)
Total: Bloc 61 (+7), Liberals 10 (-11), Conservatives 3 (+3), Independent 1 (+1)Ontario
2004 | 45 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1
Poll | 36 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0
Basically the Liberals are bleeding support, mainly to the Conservatives, but some to the NDP and some Green as well.
Ajax--Pickering: Liberal (should be close but Rondo Thomas may be a bit too so-con for this riding)
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing: NDP (should be a close, potentially 3-way race)
Beaches--East York: Liberal (interesting riding, my gut tells me it will go NDP, but I'm going to ignore it and figure that Green Leader Jim Harris gets enough votes to keep Churley (NDP) from knocking off Minna (LIB). Of course, if a lot of Minna's voters go CON (unlikely in this riding), the NDP could still take it. Tough one.
Bramalea--Gore--Malton: Liberal (Cons could take this one)
Brampton West: Conservative
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound: Conservative
Carleton--Mississippi Mills: Conservative
Davenport: Liberal (NDP could make this traditionally Liberal riding quite close, but it would take a real 406 area code surge for the NDP to break through here.
Don Valley East: Liberal
Don Valley West: Liberal
Eglinton--Lawrence: Liberal (Volpe's riding)
Etobicoke Centre: Liberal
Etobicoke North: Liberal
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock: Conservative
Halton: Conservative (tough one, currently Liberal)
Hamilton Centre: NDP
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek: NDP (Valeri's riding)
Hamilton Mountain: Liberal (tight one)
Huron--Bruce: Liberal - Steckle could be lonely in regional caucus meetings if he holds enough of his huge margin of victory (for a Liberal in rural Western Ontario) from last time
Kenora: Conservative (but really, who knows with this one)
Kingston and the Islands: Liberal (Milliken's riding)
Kitchener Centre: Liberal
Lanark--Frontenac--Lennox and Addington: Conservative
London--Fanshawe: Conservative (Pat O'Brien's old riding)
London North Centre: Liberal (Fontana is in a battle here)
London West: Conservative (Al Gretzky by the width of a puck over Liberal incumbent Sue Barnes)
Markham--Unionville: Liberal (Mcalllum's riding)
Mississauga--Brampton South: Liberal - barring local factors, it will take a bigger swing in the polls than we've seen so far to tip any of the Mississaga seats from Red to Blue
Mississauga East--Cooksville: Liberal
Mississauga South: Liberal
Newmarket--Aurora: Conservative (Stronach's riding)
Niagara Falls: Conservative
Niagara West--Glanbrook: Conservative
Nickel Belt: NDP (Bonin has held this for a while, but if the Cons steal 7-8% of the vote from the Libs as the polls predict, the NDP should be able to take this one.
Nipissing--Timiskaming: Liberal (this is a tough one, could easily go Conservative)
Northumberland--Quinte West: Conservative - Knowing the area, I was surprised to see riding went Liberal (barely) last time.
Oak Ridges--Markham: Liberal
Oshawa: Conservative (Would probably require people who voted Liberal last time to vote strategically for Ryan (NDP) for him to win here, still it's not out of the question.
Ottawa Centre: NDP - Broadbent is moving on, but enough Broadbent mojo probably remains, combined with slipping Liberal support, to keep this one in the NDP column.
Ottawa South: Liberal (David McGuinty vs. Cutler)
Ottawa West--Nepean: Conservative
Parkdale--High Park: NDP - Currently held for the Libs by Bulte, who alternates between helping write copyright law and raising funds from copyright industry lobbyists (and still finds time to threaten to sue
people who point this out) - but it's a potential reduction in Green voters combined with a Lib->Con swing which could put this one in the NDP column.
Parry Sound--Muskoka: Conservative (will Clement finally win one?)
Peterborough: Conservative - the riding I grew up in, I'm pretty sure that if popular, respected long-time Lib MP Peter Adams had run again he could have won, but with him gone, I'm not so sure. I've heard through various channels that the Conservative candidate, Del Mastro, is, to be concise, a jerk, but he should still get elected nonetheless. The Liberal candidate, Diane Lloyd, isn't well known, and if people in Peterborough had wanted to elect Linda Slavin, they could have done it many times over by now. When my Dad starts muttering about voting Green, I know the alternatives are grim.
Peterborough rarely elects someone to the opposition benches and I don't think they will this time either (although the two times since 1957 that it did vote against the country, it was sticking with it's recent choice in the second of two elections held close together (1963, 1980))
Pickering--Scarborough East: Liberal
Prince Edward--Hastings: Conservative
Richmond Hill: Liberal
Sault Ste. Marie: NDP
Scarborough--Agincourt: Liberal - Scarberia was a cold forbidding wasteland for anyone but Libs last time around, probably too much ground to make up, even with a substantial vote swing.
Scarborough Centre: Liberal
Scarborough--Rouge River: Liberal
Scarborough Southwest: Liberal
Simcoe North: Conservative
St. Catharines: Conservative
St. Paul's: Liberals - strong candidates here for both the Cons and NDP could put the squeeze in Bennett, but when you have an incumbent Cabinet Minister who won by over 20,000 votes last time (beating all other candidates combined by almost 10,000), picking them to win again is a good bet. This riding is the kind of place filled with people who still refer to Ontario as Upper Canada, and I doubt they will change their votes to the Cons until all traces of Western radicalism are gone from the party.
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry: Conservative
Thunder Bay--Rainy River: Liberal (could be an interesting three way race here)
Thunder Bay--Superior North: Liberal
Timmins--James Bay: NDP
Toronto Centre: Liberal - another old riding of mine, Graham is too personally popular (with good reason) to lose here - he got 56.% of the vote last time.
Toronto--Danforth: NDP - Layton's riding, an easy win.
Trinity--Spadina: NDP - Chow's riding, should win fairly comfortably, although writing off Ianno is unwise.
Welland: Liberal - this one is wide open.
Wellington--Halton Hills: Conservative
Whitby--Oshawa: Conservative - Flaherty tries a move to federal politics
Windsor West: NDP
York Centre: Liberal (Dryden's riding)
York South--Weston: Liberal (Alan Tonks' riding)
York West: Liberal (Sgro's riding)
whew, Ontario really is
Total: Liberal 49 (-26), Conservative 45 (+21), NDP 12 (+5)Manitoba
Last Time | 33 | 39 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0
Alas, Manitoba-only polling results are hard to find and have small sample sizes.
Man/Sask (2004) | 30 | 40 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 3
Man/Sask (Poll) | 29 | 44 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1
Also, Manitoba native Sean Incognito posted some riding by riding analysis
before (sadly) hanging up his keyboard recently.
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia: Conservative (Fletcher's riding)
Churchill: Liberal (Bev Desjarlais running as an independent throws this one wide open. My (often faulty) memory suggests that MP's who get tossed out of their party after taking a popular stand on a high profile issue and then run as independents tend to get re-elected, but Desjarlais didn't win by much last time around. I already picked one independent so let's go with the numbers and assume the left wing vote split allows the Libs to win by a nose.
Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette: Conservative
Elmwood--Transcona: NDP (Blaikie's riding)
Kildonan--St. Paul: Conservative
Provencher: Conservative (Vic Toews - glad I don't live in this riding)
Saint Boniface: Liberal
Winnipeg Centre: NDP (Pat Martin's riding)
Winnipeg North: NDP
Winnipeg South: Liberal (Alcock's riding, could be close but unlikely to change hands, unless Liberal support really drops at the last minute on the prairies)
Winnipeg South Centre: Conservative (could well stay Liberal, hedging my bets a little here in case of Liberal vote collapse).
Hmm, on review, I see that I made the same picks that Sean did.
Total: Conservative 8 (+1), Liberal 3, NDP 3 (-1)Saskachewan
Last Time | 27 | 42 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 5
Since Saskatchewan-only polling results are hard to find and have small sample sizes.
Man/Sask (2004) | 30 | 40 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 3
Man/Sask (Poll) | 29 | 44 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1
Battlefords--Lloydminster: Conservative - interesting to see what impact Jim Pankiw has running as an independent - a bit of a wild card.
Cypress Hills--Grasslands: Conservative
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River: Conservative, although it could certainly be close, I wouldn't be shocked to see the NDP win this, although it seems pretty unlikely.
Prince Albert: Conservative
Regina--Lumsden--Lake Centre: Conservative (could be close)
Regina--Qu'Appelle: NDP (if Layton can convince people to vote strategically for the NDP instead of the Liberals, Nystrom should get this seat back for the NDP, big if, though)
Saskatoon--Wanuskewin: Conservative (Vellacott vs. Chris Axowrthy vs. Jim Maddin)
Souris--Moose Mountain: Conservative
Wascana: Liberal (Ralph Goodale's riding)
Total: Conservative 12 (-1), Liberal 1 (nc), NDP 1 (+1)Alberta
2004 | 22 | 62 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0
Poll | 20 | 62 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0
Politically, Albertans are known for 2 things:
1) Always voting for the same party
2) Threatening to leave the country because people in other provinces always vote for the same party.
While we may see some movement on #2 this election, #1 looks more solid than ever.
Total: Conservative 28 (+1) Liberal 0 (-1)British Columbia
2004 | 29 | 36 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0
Poll | 27 | 38 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0
The polls suggest very little change in B.C. since the last election, with maybe a little support moving from the Liberals to the Conservatives.
Abbotsford: Conservative (at least Randy White is gone)
British Columbia Southern Interior: NDP - with Zeisman self-destructing (getting arrested) this should be an easy one
Burnaby--New Westminster: NDP
Cariboo--Prince George: Conservative
Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon: Conservative
Delta--Richmond East: Conservative
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca: NDP - Liberal incumbent (and former Reform MP) Keith Martin can't have been too happy about the Liberals anti-military in the cities ad.
Fleetwood--Port Kells: Conservative (Nina Grewal's riding)
Kelowna--Lake Country: Conservative
Langley British Columbia: Conservative
New Westminster--Coquitlam: Conservative - I called a couple of earlier close ones for the NDP so I should give one to the Cons to balance things out
Newton--North Delta: Liberal - a three way race (Gurmant Grewal isn't running this time), I think Dhaliwal will just pull it out
North Vancouver: Conservative - a tough battle, Don Bell caught the Cons a bit by surprise last time, in my opinion, with the polls leaning slightly in their favour, more motivated Cons voters should pull this one out.
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission: Conservative
Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam: Conservative
Prince George--Peace River: Conservative
Richmond: Liberal, embattled Chan should hold on
Saanich--Gulf Islands: Conservative - much as I'd like to see Andrew Lewis win the Green's first seat, Lunn will likely hold on for a small plurality against strong opposition from the Libs, NDP and Greens
Skeena--Bulkley Valley: NDP - could easily go Conservative.
South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale: Conservative
Surrey North: Conservative - who will Cadman's voters vote for this time around? I figure mainly for the Cons
Vancouver Centre: NDP - It comes to this, after predicting ridings across the country, I have to admit I have no idea who will win my own riding. Last time around, election prediction project picked NDP (Kennedy), although I thought a Liberal (Fry) win was pretty clearly the most likely outcome. This time, election prediction project has made an early call for Fry, so perhaps just for the sake of symmetry I'm going to go with Svend Robinson although I'm not nearly as confident as I was last time.
Vancouver East: NDP
Vancouver Island North: NDP (tough race NDP vs. Cons here)
Vancouver Kingsway: NDP (LIB Cabinet Member Emerson is in tough here and cold lose to the NDP because he loses too many votes to the Cons)
Vancouver Quadra: Liberal
Vancouver South: Liberal
Victoria: NDP - With David Anderson gone, this should go NDP
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country: Conservative - a tough one to finish off with, the libs could certainly take this one, especially with John Reynolds not running.
Total: Conservatives 21 (-1), NDP 11 (+6), Liberals 4 (-4)
Hmm, I have the NDP more than doubling their seat total without increasing their share of the vote. Seems iffy, although they lost a lot of close ones last time around. Oh well.Territories
Western Arctic: NDP
Total: Liberal 2 (-1), NDP 1 (+1)
Grand Total: Conservative 130, Liberal 86, Bloc 61, NDP 30, Independent 1
I guess we'll see on Monday.