Prediction Recap
Just thought I'd recap how I did with my riding by riding predictions. The ridings I got wrong are listed with the margin of victory in brackets. I may have missed a few errors since there are a lot of ridings.
Newfoundland 7/7 (Election Prediction Project 6/7)
P.E.I. 4/4 (Election Prediction Project 4/4)
Nova Scotia 10/11 (Election Prediction Project 11/11)
* West Nova (511)
New Brunswick 8/10 (Election Prediction Project 8/10)
* Miramichi (2,766)
* Saint John (1,446)
Quebec: 65/75 (Election Prediction Project 66/75)
* Beauport-Limelieu (812)
* Bourassa (4,928)
* Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles (1,368)
* Honore-Mercier (1,939)
* Jonquiere-Alma (6,768)
* Laval-Les-Iles (3,212)
* Levis-Bellechase (9,717)
* Lotbiniere--Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere (12,834) - oops!
* Louis-Hebert (103)
* Megantic--L'Arable (8,011)
Ontario: 96/106 (Election Prediction Project 98/106)
* Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing (1,408)
* Brampton West (7,644)
* Brant (582)
* Hamilton Mountain (2,782)
* Kenora (1,036)
* London-Fanshawe (997, 2,733 vs. my pick)
* London West (1,332)
* Newmarket-Aurora (4,805)
* Nickel Belt (2,107)
* Sarnia-Lambton (3,187)
Manitoba: 12/14 (Election Prediction Project 12/14)
* Winnipeg South (110)
* Winnipeg South Centre (3,199)
Saskatchewan: 12/14 (Election Prediction Project 12/14)
* Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River (106)
* Regina-Qu'Appelle (2,740)
Alberta: 28/28 (Election Prediction Project 28/28)
B.C.: 29/36 (Election Prediction Project 31/36)
* Equimalt-Juan De Fuca (2161)
* New Westminister (2,928)
* North Vancouver (3,334)
* Surrey North (6,362)
* Vancouver Centre (8,641)
* Vancouver Kingsway (4,494)
* West Vancouver (986)
Territories 3/3 (Election Prediction Project 2/3)
Total right: 274 (Election Prediction Project 278)
Total Wrong: 34 (Election Prediction Project 30)
So I'd say that I gave it a pretty good effort, especially since everyone is lauding the accuracy of the Election Prediction Project's predictions. Of course I used the forums provided by election prediction project to make my own predictions, so what limited success I had is partly a credit to them as well.
Still, next time I hope to defeat them and those Democratic Space people (283 correct) too! - I guess getting my own riding right would be a good start.
Newfoundland 7/7 (Election Prediction Project 6/7)
P.E.I. 4/4 (Election Prediction Project 4/4)
Nova Scotia 10/11 (Election Prediction Project 11/11)
* West Nova (511)
New Brunswick 8/10 (Election Prediction Project 8/10)
* Miramichi (2,766)
* Saint John (1,446)
Quebec: 65/75 (Election Prediction Project 66/75)
* Beauport-Limelieu (812)
* Bourassa (4,928)
* Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles (1,368)
* Honore-Mercier (1,939)
* Jonquiere-Alma (6,768)
* Laval-Les-Iles (3,212)
* Levis-Bellechase (9,717)
* Lotbiniere--Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere (12,834) - oops!
* Louis-Hebert (103)
* Megantic--L'Arable (8,011)
Ontario: 96/106 (Election Prediction Project 98/106)
* Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing (1,408)
* Brampton West (7,644)
* Brant (582)
* Hamilton Mountain (2,782)
* Kenora (1,036)
* London-Fanshawe (997, 2,733 vs. my pick)
* London West (1,332)
* Newmarket-Aurora (4,805)
* Nickel Belt (2,107)
* Sarnia-Lambton (3,187)
Manitoba: 12/14 (Election Prediction Project 12/14)
* Winnipeg South (110)
* Winnipeg South Centre (3,199)
Saskatchewan: 12/14 (Election Prediction Project 12/14)
* Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River (106)
* Regina-Qu'Appelle (2,740)
Alberta: 28/28 (Election Prediction Project 28/28)
B.C.: 29/36 (Election Prediction Project 31/36)
* Equimalt-Juan De Fuca (2161)
* New Westminister (2,928)
* North Vancouver (3,334)
* Surrey North (6,362)
* Vancouver Centre (8,641)
* Vancouver Kingsway (4,494)
* West Vancouver (986)
Territories 3/3 (Election Prediction Project 2/3)
Total right: 274 (Election Prediction Project 278)
Total Wrong: 34 (Election Prediction Project 30)
So I'd say that I gave it a pretty good effort, especially since everyone is lauding the accuracy of the Election Prediction Project's predictions. Of course I used the forums provided by election prediction project to make my own predictions, so what limited success I had is partly a credit to them as well.
Still, next time I hope to defeat them and those Democratic Space people (283 correct) too! - I guess getting my own riding right would be a good start.
posted by Declan at
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
5 Comments:
Dont break your arm patting yourself on the back,Jack
By
Anonymous, at 12:18 PM
huh?
By
Declan, at 5:27 PM
Yeah Declan, statements like "So I'd say that I gave it a pretty good effort" and "what limited success I had" are just so arrogant!
By
Simon, at 9:16 PM
The Election Prediction Project is such a beautiful counterexample to the saying "garbage in, garbage out". It seems that every other post on that site is something along the lines of "I walked three blocks in Calgary Southwest, and saw two NDP signs, so I'd say that Harper's seat is seriously at risk", and yet, the predictions are routinely very accurate.
By
Anonymous, at 4:51 PM
Yeah, election predicting is definitely more like searching through the trash for pop cans and less like putting together a jigsaw puzzle.
By
Declan, at 7:51 PM
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