Crawl Across the Ocean

Monday, January 23, 2006

Election Night

I wonder how long that 1 green seat will last on the CBC scorecard?

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Well I got Newfoundland and P.E.I. right, but it looks like I overestimated the Bloc's ability to hold its vote (despite discounting them a little).

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Good grief, it looks like whoever wins Peterbrough could do it with less than 1/3 of the vote - can we have electoral reform sometime soon please:

Conservative Dean Del Mastro 6,947 33.0 33.0%
Green Party Brent Wood 1,084 5.2 5.2%
Independent Bob Bowers 72 0.3 0.3%
Liberal Diane Lloyd 6,742 32.1 32.1%
Marijuana Party Aiden Wiechula 174 0.8 0.8%
N.D.P. Linda Slavin 6,008 28.6 28.6%

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7:43 (pst): 151 and counting for the CPC + NDP total, 155 needed for a clear majority. 5 left unreported (including Van. Centre),

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152, 3 to go.

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Hey, Mansbridge is stealing my thunder...

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Election prediction project underestimated the Tory surge in Quebec as well, but otherwse they are kicking ass, prediction-wise.

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7:53 André Arthur must be loving this.

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What's up with Vancouver Centre - they can't count a single poll yet?

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If Tony Clement loses Parry Sound he should really pack it in (in terms of politics), or maybe find a province which likes him more.

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As CalgaryGrit notes, SES is another prediction winner, once again (as in 2004) putting their polling rivals to shame. Once could be a fluke, twice starts to look like some kind of methodological flaw on the part of the other pollsters. Ipsos & Strategic Counsel are going to take another hit to their credibility, the way things are going.

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49 seats for the Bloc? Is this the beginning of the end for them?

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If the Conservative vote really is up 4% in B.C. (and isn't just an artifact of which polls have reported so far), while the Conservatives are losing a lot of seats here, it would be a sign that the B.C. vote has really polarized.

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Looks like I was wrong this time and Fry will keep her seat. I have to say I'm not too surprised (or upset, interesting to see how Fry does in opposition). I got so much contact from Fry's campaign team in the last couple of days that I half expected them to come by, pick me up, carry me to the polls and force me to vote Liberal. Whereas from Svend's campaign, next to nothing.

I see the CPC + NDP total is right at 155 for the moment.

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Stronach also surprised me, I thought she was toast. Well done, although the media coverage seems a little much.

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8:31 CPC + NDP down to 153.

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Maybe it will shift as the night goes on, but right now I'd be annoyed (if I was a Conservative supporter) that we're seeing more coverage of Liberal candidates than Conservative ones - maybe it's just me.

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Given the circumstances, the overall results seem pretty reasonable to me. Kudos to the Canadian public! Bring on the next session of parliament.

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also, sorry about some comments being held im limbo for a while, I had comment moderation on for a while and although I turned it off, there seemed to be a bit of a delay before it lifted, so I had to let through comments manually. Seems OK now.

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Paul Martin sure looks happy - maybe he's just happy it's over.

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Looks like the Green Party has held its support from the last election (582 thousand in 2004, 576 thousand and conting this time around). Pretty impressive under the circumstances. Instant Update: That didn't take long, now they're ahead of their 2004 total.

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Something about Martin's tone when he said that 'the people of Canada have chosen Harper to lead a minority government' made me feel that he was trying to hide his glee about how Harper would suffer trying to do just that.

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9 Liberals in B.C. (for the moment)? - I didn't see that coming.

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Mansbridge is making a good point that we could see efforts to pull a couple of Bloc members over to the federalist (Conservative) side - it wouldn't be the first time!

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General comment on my predictions - I think my biggest general mistake (outside of Quebec) was underestimating the power of incumbency (North Van, Van Centre, Esquimalt, and lots more) - people say they want change, but I'm not sure they really do!

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Is Stephen Harper still speaking?

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10:40 Still?

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Well, I have little faith in God's willingness to bless the country - if you ask me, it's up to us. Go to it Stephen, we'll be keeping an eye on you, but hoping for the best.

19 Comments:

  • Wow, Canadians sure like voting Liberal. (When I saw the ElectionPrediction.org totals the other day, I thought they were quite generous to the Liberals, but apparently not.)

    And, unfortunately, that Green lead did not last nearly as long as the Marxist-Leninist lead lasted in 2004. That was a good one.

    By Anonymous Moebius Stripper, at 7:55 PM  

  • 8:07pm - still no Vancouver Centre results.

    CTV has reported that lineups were huge at 7pm in some locations.

    By Blogger Simon, at 8:09 PM  

  • Amazing, they only have 2/3 of the seats in the province? That's only low compared to Alberta.

    By Blogger wolfa, at 8:25 PM  

  • Vancouver Centre: Svend is trailing by appx. 1700 to 1200 with 25/266 polls in.

    The CTV BC News team just had the following exchange (paraphrased):

    Anchor: The big losers tonight appear to be the Green Party, down 4% in the popular vote. They've did very well in the last election, particularly in [some Island riding]...
    Analyst: they've dropped down to probably where they should be.

    Me: hunh?

    By Blogger Simon, at 8:29 PM  

  • I received two calls from Svend's campaign. One a few days ago to ask me to please vote, and one tonight making sure I did go out and vote.

    Your comments feature sucks tonight. My comments seem to be in Blogger limbo for a very long time!

    By Blogger Simon, at 8:38 PM  

  • Re: electoral reform

    Check out the North Delta results - it's something like 6,200 to 6,100 to 6,100 at the moment!

    By Blogger Simon, at 8:44 PM  

  • "49 seats for the Bloc"

    It may be the beginning of the end, if only the Conservative + NDP seats = 155 or more and Layton is as pragmatic in his dealings with Harper as he was with Martin. Then Harper can ignore the separatists and make them irrelevant in the House. Would be nice.

    By Blogger talk talk talk, at 9:00 PM  

  • I'm surprised at the lead Hedy has, but I'm with you: she's good opposition.
    I saw her outside the Shoppers Drug Mart on Davie today, and she looked scared. I felt for her.
    Still, I'm sad about Svend. He's such a forthright politician. You always know he means it. But the volunteerism wasn't strong enough, I think. I had a hard time getting a sign.

    By Anonymous Arwen, at 9:12 PM  

  • Re: the Green Party: I usually vote for them, but this time I decided to throw my support behind Sven's bid against Hedy - naturally my own actions got me worried that the Greens would see their funding slashed dramatically thanks to a mass exodus of voter support. Thankfully either most Green supporters didn't 'follow my lead', or they did and the party picked up new supporters! Either way I'm happy to see the Greens have at least managed to tread water.

    By Blogger Simon, at 9:20 PM  

  • I'm just shocked with how close my riding is. West Vancouver has Liberal Blair Wilson leading by about 600 votes. West Vancouver! The most conservative riding in the country voting Liberal!

    By Blogger Andrew, at 9:36 PM  

  • I've been watching CTV tonight, with Lloyd hosting a panel of Craig Oliver, John Reynolds (Conservative Campaign Co-Chair), Brian Tobin, Joy McPhail (former NDP BC leader) and some PQ guy.

    The difference between this panel and what I saw on the U.S. TV during the 2004 elections is staggering. In the U.S., panels are polluted with disgusting spin masters like the despicable Ken Mehlmann (GOP) and the excrutiating Paul Begala (CNN guy, former Clinton aide), whereas the CTV panel is not only polite to each other, but seemingly genuinely respectful to one another.

    We're far from perfect up here and I often find myself banging my head against a wall after watching a typical CTV or CBC news broadcast during election season, but I'm nevertheless happy to see that our TV news programs still seem to be light years away from the useless, stylized, partisan faux-debate shows of the american stations. Maybe we'll be there one day, but hopefully not for another generation or two.

    By Blogger Simon, at 9:36 PM  

  • I just got a good chuckle from Layton's speech. He congratulated Martin, which induced cheers from the crowd. He congratulated Duceppe which also generated cheers from the crowd. Then he congratulated Harper, and the crowd started booing! Ouch.

    By Blogger Simon, at 9:49 PM  

  • Andrew - Maybe people in West-Van took Conservative anti-elite rhetoric seriously!

    More likely it's the impact of Reynolds retiring, but still.

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    Wolfangel - As for the Bloc, I only siad it could be the beginning of the end - not that they will pack up tomorrow. But having their support fade away from 50%, having to face 2 legitimate federalist options, losing seats and votes in an election that seemed tailor made for their benefit - their momentum is negative, that's for sure.

    Talkx3: Looks like the Bloc will hold the balance, alas. Close though.

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    MS - Yeah, when I heard that Green lead was in Prince Rupert, I knew it wouldn't survive too many polls. I thought the same about election prediction project, both this time and last time.

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    Simon - Yeah North Deltais quite the three way race. Agreed about the higher tone of punditry here in Canada and your hope that we can sustain it.

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    By Blogger Declan, at 9:53 PM  

  • As far as the Greens go, I don't think this is a very positive result for them...they didn't win a seat anywhere, and their vote was basically treading water. Given all the momentum they had following the 2004 election, they really should've done better. Hopefully Harris will do what's best for the Party, and step aside so that someone else can try and bring them to the next level.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:18 PM  

  • I'm not so sure that it is a bad result for the Greens, but it may still be good for the party to have a change of leadership. I'm not a Green Party member so I can't really speak to that too much.

    By Blogger Declan, at 10:41 PM  

  • "Maybe it will shift as the night goes on, but right now I'd be annoyed (if I was a Conservative supporter) that we're seeing more coverage of Liberal candidates than Conservative ones - maybe it's just me."


    well, i watched a bc version of the coverage, and it was a little liberal-heavy, but i counted it as another instance of urban bias as opposed to straight up liberal bias.

    By Blogger vota la gallo, at 1:25 AM  

  • They won some historically Liberal (=immigrant) ridings in Montreal, though -- and the Conservatives also went mostly from Liberal ridings. (Strangely, it doesn't look like there was non-Bloc vote splitting.) It's not great, but it's not really all that bad for them, either.

    Maybe the Green party would have done better if they'd, I don't know, put up posters? (Sure, perhaps they did elsewhere, but not here.)

    By Blogger wolfa, at 7:25 AM  

  • vota - yeah, I thought about that, and maybe they are just a bit lazy about getting out to the more rural areas (is it really so far to Abbotsford or Nanaimo?) or maybe because the rural, Conservative ridings tend to be landslides while the urban ridings are more in doubt, there is more drama in the cities, but it still seemed a litle biased.

    Harper helped to balance out the coverage with his never-ending speech though!

    Wolfangel - agreed about the Green party - it didn't seem like a lot of money flowed down to the riding level, and that has to be an issue for the party and the leadership.

    I see what you're saying about the Bloc, but I still think that the Bloc's highwater mark may have come 6-12 months ago, and it may be a steady downhill erosion from here.

    By Blogger Declan, at 7:52 AM  

  • In my riding it wouldn't've mattered, but the reason in the end I didn't vote Green was because they were the only party without signs, the only party to not give out flyers, etc. I don't know where their money went, but frankly, if they want to be a real party they need to act like it.

    I hope you're right about the Bloc, I really do. (Duceppe's misstep about "we already voted on this, we don't want to revisit it" might actually be what spells his downfall.) I just think that you're not.

    By Blogger wolfa, at 10:13 AM  

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