Crawl Across the Ocean

Monday, December 08, 2008

Question Answered

After the federal election, I asked, "Can the Conservatives keep chasing the Quebec nationalists without alienating their rural anglophone supporters in the rest of the country? Or will they refocus on the 905 region which could also provide them enough extra seats to form a majority?"

I guess we know the answer to that one!

On the other hand, in the same post I predicted that the Liberals, "seem likely to elect Ignatieff as their new leader and swing to the right in an attempt to regain the ground they have lost to the Conservatives over the last two elections."

Which is going as predicted so far, and I suspect having Ignatieff in charge of the LIberals will make it harder for the Conservatives to make inroads into the 905 area.

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  • If you're the Liberals, preventing erosion of the 905 is probably top priority... where would you go from there? Expand out of Montreal, or go west?

    The Conservatives are probably best to wash Prince Edward Island with cash, and see what they can do in Atlantic Canada since it's clear their Quebec strategy netted zero return and they're not likely to get into Fortress Toronto.

    The NDP's also in an odd situation. Not entirely clear what I would do if I were them. Depends on what the Liberals do.

    By Blogger Sacha, at 12:51 PM  

  • The Liberals may have an opportunity to win back some ground in Quebec if they get themselves organized, so expanding out of Montreal might work. Potentially there is room for them to make gains in rural Ontario, and urban areas of the West but that will be a challenge unless the Conservatives have some major screwup.

    The NDP seems best to position themselves as the anti-establishment option, the only party not led by someone who wanted to fight in Iraq, and try to gain ground in the poorer ridings across the country that should be their natural allies. Basically more of the same.

    The Conservatives could take some of the cash they save in Quebec to Newfoundland, make a deal with Danny to get the Lower Churchill project going and that might net them 4 or more seats.

    They'll have to keep up the fight in Ontario and hope for some further gains in B.C. as well.

    Having said all that, I'm no political strategist, I try to stick to policy advice...

    By Blogger Declan, at 6:21 PM  

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