Media Failure #3

OK, last bit of media-bashing for a while, Vancouver Condo Info reminds of this article from the CBC on the Vancouver Housing Market. Of course there are any number of articles like this one, but this one stands out for its timing (it was published right at the top of the market) and the lack of any balance to the bullish predictions.

Says the CBC, "

B.C. house prices forecast to keep rising: Anyone looking for a dip in the British Columbia real estate market before buying a home might reconsider their strategy.

A report by the Credit Union Central of British Columbia predicts housing prices will continue to rise by as much as 10 per cent this year and as much as seven per cent in 2009.

The report predicts that in 2009 multi-family units such as condos and townhomes could exceed single-family homes in B.C.The report predicts that in 2009 multi-family units such as condos and townhomes could exceed single-family homes in B.C.

Lower mortgage rates, a tight labour market, high income growth and rising in-migration all point to continued high sales volumes and price rises, according the CUCBC's chief economist Helmut Pastrick.

The Economic Analysis of British Columbia released Monday says the current housing boom is unlike previous market cycles that ended with a large oversupply of homes, causing a sharp drop in prices.

In the current market, sales have reached a plateau and the supply of houses is only gradually catching up with demand. And with the recent drop in mortgage rates, the CUCBC expects the number of home sales will pick up once again.

It's almost like they are trying to parody a typical bullish media article from the top of a bubble. There's the classic 'this time is different' reasoning ("the current housing boom is unlike previous market cycles"), there's the reliance on 'experts' who work at institutions with a vested interest in rising prices, the discounting of data that doesn't fit the happy storyline, and so on.

And I can laugh, because I didn't buy a house this year, but anyone who did after reading this article would have to be pretty pissed off since the price of an average detached house in Vancouver has dropped over $100,000 since May. I guess the CBC was right, anyone looking for a dip in the B.C. market *should* have reconsidered their strategy - since far worse than a dip was coming.