This Surface May Seem Calm Enough, But Underneath, But Underneath

Well, the fog has given way to plain old rain, so things are back to normal here in Vancouver, which I guess means that it is time to return to writing about federal politics. I've been planning to write some posts about various federal policy issues (because there's no better time to talk about the issues then during an election campaign), looking at each issue from a non-partisan perspective and then comparing my analysis to the position in each party's platform, but that takes time, which I don't have a lot of at the moment. So for now, here's a passing thought about the election which occurred to me today.

Back when George Bush nominated his personal lawyer Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court, Josh Marshall had an insightful comment that he wouldn't be surprised to see the nomination withdrawn - not because there were people opposed to it (there would be people opposed to any nominee) but because there was nobody willing to go out and defend the nomination. Sure enough, it wasn't long before the Miers nomination was withdrawn, and I didn't hear much complaining when it happened.

Wandering around blogland reading Warren Kinsella, Andrew Spicer, James Bow, KevinG and in particular this excellent column by Paul Wells, I'm starting to think that the same thing is true about the federal Liberal party. All the people I just mentioned are fairly centrist and pragmatic rather than ideological, and while obviously they're not all going to vote Liberal every election, they are pretty representative of the natural Liberal constituency (in my opinion). And yet they all seem to be hoping for, if not actively working towards, a Liberal defeat this time around.

Looking at the polls, it seems that there is still a large reservoir of Liberal support out there, but I suspect that the only dam left on this reservoir is the fear (after so many relatively prosperous years of Liberal rule) of putting someone else in power. And each day I see a few more cracks in that dam.

Changing metaphors, the Liberals have increasingly started to remind me of an old monarch, once respected but now corrupt and over the hill, desperately trying to hang onto power by bribing and threatening people, but increasingly deserted by all the independent powers in court and only supported by a few diehard personal loyalists and an ever shrinking group of hangers-on and sycophants who are only there for the largesse.

Maybe I'm out to lunch (or reading too much Shakespeare!), or maybe I'm right and the Liberals will manage to seal up the cracks and the dam will hold for one more election, but I think there is a bigger chance than most people realize that the Liberal dam could burst and we will see fewer Liberals elected West of Montreal than anyone is currently expecting.

Time will tell, I guess.


-----
Title taken from Dream Thrum by James (the band, not Bow).