Crawl Across the Ocean

Sunday, July 03, 2005

The Efficient Society: Cooperation vs. Competition

Note: This post is a continuation of this post and this post.

Second note: This post doesn't really add much new to this excellent post from Andrew Spicer from over 2 years ago (which you really should read), but I wanted to write it all out in my own words to get a grasp on the ideas involved



Chapters 3 through 5 of 'The Efficient Society' all revolve around the concept of the Prisoner's Dilemma1.

From the wikipedia site on the Prisoner's Dilemma:

"The classical prisoner's dilemma (PD) is as follows:

Two suspects A, B are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and having separated both prisoners, visit each of them and offer the same deal: if one turns Kings Evidence against the other and the other remains silent, the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence and the betrayer goes free. If both stay silent, the police can only give both prisoners 6 months for a minor charge. If both betray each other, they receive a 2-year sentence each.

Assume both prisoners are completely selfish and their only goal is to minimise their own jail terms. Each prisoner has two options: to cooperate with his accomplice and stay quiet, or to betray his accomplice and give evidence. The outcome of each choice depends on the choice of the accomplice. However, neither prisoner knows the choice of his accomplice. Even if they were able to talk to each other, neither could be sure that they could trust the other.

Now, let's assume our protagonist prisoner is rationally working out his best move. If his partner stays quiet, his best move is to betray as he then walks free instead of receiving the minor sentence. If his partner betrays, his best move is still to betray, as by doing it he receives a relatively lesser sentence than staying silent. At the same time, the other prisoner thinking rationally would also have arrived at the same conclusion and therefore will betray. Thus, in a game of PD played only once by two rational players both will betray each other and the world will become a place for monsters. Betrayal is their only rational choice.

However, if only they could arrive at a conspiracy, if only they could be sure that the other player would not betray, they would both have stayed silent and achieved a better result. However, such a conspiracy cannot exist, as it is vulnerable to the treachery of selfish individuals, which we assumed our prisoners to be. Therein lies the true beauty and the maddening paradox of the game.

If only they could both cooperate, they would both be better off; however, from a game theorist's point of view, their best play is not to cooperate but to betray. This treacherous quality of the deceptively simple game has inspired libraries full of books, made it one of the most popular examples of game theory and made some people appeal for banning studies on the game.

If reasoned from the perspective of the optimal interest of the group (of two prisoners), the correct outcome would be for both prisoners to cooperate with each other, as this would reduce the total jail time served by the group to one year total. Any other decision would be worse for the two prisoners considered together. However by each following their selfish interests, the two prisoners each receive a lengthy sentence."


Clearly, the outcome of the dilemma depends upon where on the axis running from perfect cooperation to perfect competition the people involved happen to be. If people always cooperate then prisoner's dilemmas have no impact at all. If people always compete then the prisoner's dilemma becomes inescapable no matter how obviously damaging it becomes.

Now consider the following two prisoner's dilemmas (both taken from 'The Efficient Society'.

Dilemma #1:
"Imagine a situation in which there are no police or security guards, and no official rules to prevent you from doing what you want. Everyone will therefore be responsible for his or her own protection. In order to guarantee your personal security, you might reasonably decide to carry a weapon. Let's say you have a choice between carrying a knife and carrying a gun. Your potential assailant will have the same choice. So if you do get attacked and need to defend yourself, the set of possible scenarios looks something like the following (in descending order of desirability):

1. You have a gun; your opponent has a knife.
2. You both have knives.
3. You both have guns.
4. You have a knife; your opponent has a gun.

Both of you will try to get your own number one, and as a result you will both get number three. Everyone will carry a gun. Thus the desire to achieve greater personal security has the effect of increasing the deadliness of any eventual conflict (and thus the overall level of insecurity).


Dilemma #2:
Suppose you and your competitor each are holding substantial quantities of some good. If you both charge six dollars per unit, buyers will purchase 100 units total, probably 50 from each of you. However, at a price of five dollars, buyers would be willing to purchase 120 units. Suppose that your cost is three dollars per unit. Here are the possible scenarios:

1. You lower prices; your competitor doesn't. Sold: 120 @ $5. Profit: $240 [120 * (5-3)]
2. Neither of you lowers prices. Sold: 50 @ $6. Profit $150 [50 * (6-3)]
3. Both of you lower prices. Sold: 60 2 $5. Profit $120 [60 * (5-3)]
4. Your competitor lowers prices; you don't. Sold 0. Profit 0.

Whether you are chasing after windfall profits or simply trying not to get frozen out of the market, your best strategy is to lower prices. The same goes for your competitor. As a result, you will both lower prices, and so instead of making profits of $150 each, you will make only $120 each. It is clearly not in your interest to pursue this competition, but you don't have much choice. ... That is why they say every free market is but a failed cartel.


Note that from the perspective of the person involved in the dilemma, these two situations are identical. In both cases they will benefit by cooperating and suffer by competing. But from the perspective of society as a whole the two cases are quite different: in the first case cooperation is beneficial (less deadly violence is good for society) but in the second case competition is beneficial (lower prices are good for society).

So what does an efficient society do? Clearly, an efficient society encourages cooperation in the first type of dilemma but encourages competition in the second kind.

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So, chapter 3 of the Efficient Society looks at the role of government in solving dilemmas with negative impacts on society. Because the government has, by definition, a monopoly in any given territory, if the government takes responsibility for some activity than we can ensure that there is no competition within that particular territory for that particular activity. Here we see why the monopoly on the use of force is so fundamental to government. Not only is competition in the use of force (violent crime/civil war) the most devastating prisoner's dilemma problem we face, but unless the government controls the use of force, it has no power to enforce its monopoly in any other area.

The above examples and Chapter 3 may give the misleading impression that we always need government to intervene in cases where cooperation is beneficial. In fact, for the vast majority of these situations, government intervention is not required, and we rely on our sense of what is right to cooperate rather than having the government force it on us.

In chapter 4, Heath looks at situations where moral suasion replaces the role of government in helping us to cooperate with each other,
"the practice of lining up is itself an efficiency promoting institution. The reason we line up for things is that any kind of rationed access to a good generates a prisoner's dilemma. Everyone has an incentive to push his or her way to the front, but when everyone does this, the mob scene that ensues results in everyone getting through more slowly. This is especially true in the case of emergency exits. When I was young, it always seemed strange to me that parents and teachers expected us to line up to escape from burning buildings. The reason, I later discovered, is that more people can escape in a given time if the exit is conducted in an orderly fashion. This is not much comfort to those at the back of the line, and so the rule requires fairly powerful moral incentives in order to have any force."


The fact that morals supporting cooperation have always been a bulwark of society not falling apart into a million prisoner's dilemmas helps explain why trade, in which competition is promoted over cooperation, has been, throughout history, consistently regarded as a base or shameful occupation.

In chapter 5, Heath looks at prisoner's dilemmas which have positive outcomes for society and shows how markets, by facilitating competition, make it impossible for sellers to get out of their prisoner's dilemmas.

The one thing I would take issue with Heath on here is his statement,
"In point of fact, the central "discovery" that led to the development of the market economy is not that one can do without morality but that one can permit a selective decline in morality without having society fall apart."


In fact, I would argue, based on 'Systems of Survival' by Jane Jacobs, that the market system does not depend on a decline in morality as much as on the usage of a second set of (equally valid) morals - ones specifically suited to prisoners dilemmas with positive outcomes for society. Instead of looking at prisoner's dilemmas, Jacobs tracks the two systems of morals back to 'taking' and 'trading' as our two means of making a living - but clearly there is considerable overlap between activities based on 'taking' and prisoners dilemmas with negative outcomes for society and a similar overlap between trading activities and prisoner's dilemmas with a positive outcome for society2.

Jacobs tracks 'commercial' morality back to the ancient Greeks and through societies such as the Romans, Japanese, Indians and medieval Europeans which were effectively divided into classes or castes with one caste living by 'taking' / cooperative morality and one caste living by commercial / trading / competitive morality.

Somewhere along the line, for some reason, the commercial set of morals became greatly strengthened in Europe coming out of the middle ages leading to the expansion of markets, the enlightenment, the industrial revolution etc. etc.

Which brings us back to chapter 2. In chapter 2, Heath suggested that our move to a society where the state stayed out of questions of values was a result of improved technological weaponry which made disagreements much more deadly than in the past. At this point, I am more inclined to think that the shrinking role of the state has more to do with the increased role of commercial/competitive morality in our society than it did to the Reformation, the invention of gunpowder or to the European civil wars. I suspect that Hobbes, with his social contract, was simply reflecting the changes in society which had already had taken place rather than actually having much of an impact on the course of events himself.

For instance, Jacobs tracks most our current individual rights back to the development of the medieval European Custom of Merchants, noting that, "So many of what we call civil rights are actually rights to make contracts as equals" and that, "Another variety of sexism has often denied homosexuals the benefit of contractual law". Of course, none of this disputes the truth of what Heath wrote in chapter 2, just the source of the changes he described.

And of course I don't really have any answer to explain how it was that in Europe at that particular time commercial morality became so much stronger and more influential than it ever had anywhere else. I suppose Heath's guess is as good as any.

Well, my head hurts, so I think I'm going to leave it at that for now. The amazing thing is that there is actually still a lot more stuff in 'The Efficient Society' that I want to discuss (the usefulness of bureaucracies, problems with GDP as a measurement tool, the need for global government and the challenge presented by an information economy, among others), but I'll have to save that for future posts.



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1As Andrew points out in his post,
"the more applicable generalization is that of the problem of suboptimization. As defined on the Principia Cybernetica web site:

Optimizing the outcome for a subsystem will [in many cases] not optimize the outcome for the system as a whole. This intrinsic difficulty may degenerate into the "tragedy of the commons": the exhaustion of shared resources because of competition between the subsystems."



2To see why, note that when you take for a living you are basically relying on nature's bounty (or the work of others), and when you take something for yourself, then nobody else can take the same thing. So taking amounts to being a zero-sum game.

When trading, however, it can be assumed that because both people make the exchange voluntarily, both must benefit so the outcome of a trade is a net gain.

Now imagine introducing competition into a taking activity and into a trading activity. In the zero sum world of taking, increased competition accomplishes nothing other than to make everybody work harder (and to fight more), so an optimal strategy in a taking environment is to cooperate rather than to compete. In the positive sum world of trading, however, competition makes everybody work harder which (because it is a positive sum game) leads to a better outcome for everybody - assuming that everybody competes within the rules of the trading game, sticking to voluntary exchange rather than using force.

This is why when people who take for a living start to compete with each other it is generally referred to as treason, while when people who trade for a living stop competing with each other it is known as collusion.

Of course, trading can occur and be beneficial even without competitive markets, but competitive markets help a lot because it is the competition which creates the prisoner's dilemma which ensures that prices are set efficiently and which motivates traders to work hard.


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A couple of other related posts on this topic:

Andrew Spicer describes in detail an interesting (and surprising) prisoner's dilemma involving trucks passing other vehicles on the highway.

I write about when competition is good and when it is bad in the context of industrial subsidies, as per Systems of Survival.

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Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Book Tag Trackback

After being tagged myself, I tagged (among other people) Andrew Spicer to talk about his books. After sarcastically thanking me (and the others who tagged him) he asked (I think rhetorically), who started this thing?

A few days later, the pesky part of my brain that's always causing trouble pointed out that it shouldn't (theoretically) be that hard to figure it out - Just track backwards from tag to tag until you get to the beginning (or a dead end).

So let's see. I was tagged by Greg at Sinister Thoughts.

He was tagged by Damian at Babbling Brooks.

Damian was tagged by Alan at Occam's Carbuncle

Alan was tagged by Jay at the Freedom to Serfdom

Jay was tagged by Freeman, Libertarian Critter

Freeman was tagged twice, so for now I'm just going to go with the first one listed, which was Wally Conger at Out of Step.

Wally was tagged by Thomas Knapp of 'Knappster: Blog Naked for Jesus'

Thomas was tagged by Thomas Luongo of Being Thomas Luongo

Alas, Thomas only says that he is writing as a favour to his friend the e-e and doesn't provide a link. This cryptic reference is resolved by Thomas Knapp who notes that the tag was in relation to a project of the Eclectic Econoclast.

The Econoclast was tagged by Peter Mork at Economics With a Face

Peter was tagged by Tim Sandefur at Freespace.

Tim was tagged by John at TexasBestGrok

John was tagged by Rob at The Llama Butchers

Rob was tagged by The Irish Elk

The Irish Elk was tagged by Father Ethan at Diary of a Suburban Priest.

Ethan was tagged by Zadok the Roman at 'The Commonplace Book of Zadok the Roman'

Zadok was tagged by Lauren at Cnytr

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Aside: I'm starting to wonder if it's just bloggers all the way down.
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Lauren was tagged by Cole at Deo Gratias

Cole was tagged by Epiphany at Minivan Mom

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Note: A few days later, Epiphany links to Craig Canton (June 6 entry. no permalinks) who had the same idea I did. He tracked this chain back a few more links from Minivan Mom but hits a dead end at Sarcastic Kitty who doesn't provide a link to who tagged her.

Although - she does name the site, and with some digging, it is here - but it's password protected. So there you go, Andrew - someone doesn't want you to know who started this...

Let's try a different branch.

Freeman was tagged twice, so let's track back from his other tag, from Kristen at 'Enjoy Every Sandwich' - no this chain goes quickly back to Wally Conger.

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Hmm, if we really want to find out where this started we need to employ some technology on our behalf, specifically Technorati.

After doing some digging, it seems that sarcastic kitty must have either been the first blog to use this particular meme or else changed the wording of the first question, since that wording 'number of books you've (or I've) owned' has no Technorati references (that I can see) prior to mid-May when the Kitty entry appeared.

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Looking around more, I see that a slightly different version (which asks 'how many books do you have 'in your house') has been slowly winding it's way through the seemingly large and insular world of knitting blogs for quite a while now - although it seems to be finally dying.

I tracked the knitting thread back to a dead end on April 15 at Stitch but, looking at Technorati it appears that this particular version arose out of the murky, poorly linked depths of live journal sometime in last February (with a few comments suggesting it jumped to there from mailing lists). See here for an entry from Feb 25.

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Meanwhile, from March 31, here's a version which asks how many books you've read in the last year.

This version tracks back into French

And it looks like we can actually track this one back to its source at L'Atelier D'Anne on March 4th. This version of the quiz appears to die in early April in English, but is still going strong in French.

Note: Miss Vicky received both this version and the 'how many books do you own' version.

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So to summarize, there was a version which asked for the 'Number of books you have in your house' which seemed to emerge out of livejournal in late February but is now dying.

Meanwhile, there was a separate version which asked 'How Many books do your read a year' which started from a French website. This version crossed over into English but died (in English) in early April.

The original 'How many books in your house' may or may not have mutated at some point into 'How Many Books You've Owned' (which suddenly appeared seemingly in many placs at once in mid-May) which mostly likely evolved into 'How Many Books You Own' and then 'How Many Books I Own' - the version I received and the one most active currently. Alas, I haven't found any of the 'missing links' which would show where these mutations occurred, so it's possible that the newer versions were just 'designed' by some 'God'-like being. Or not. But they seemed to emerge around mid-May with an improved reproductive strategy of a specific request to 'tag' 5 more people as opposed to just passing it on to 3.

Finally, via Bound by Gravity I see that Robot Guy tracked a parallel book meme (which asked about Fahrenheit 451) to a source at the Pink Bee on March 4th. Interestingly, the 451 meme spread and died much quicker than the 'how many books' variants. I originally just thought the 451 meme was totally separate, but given the similarity of the last line (Who are you going to pass this stick to (3 persons) and why?) to the late Feb. livejournal entries, it is likely that the 451 meme was also a mutation of this earlier meme (or maybe that's just a standard final line of a meme and they did have separate origins).

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Do you ever start something, thinking it will be simple only to end up spending way more time on it that you expected? Anyway, I guess that doesn't really answer your question Andrew, but I gave it a shot.

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Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Keeping Transaction Costs Down*

Via Andrew Sullivan, I see that the Chinese government is following the B.C. government's trailblazing example and requiring people to register their blogs with the government.

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Meanwhile, pogge takes up a task I considered but rejected, mocking the hyperbolic language of the Chamber of Commerce in this National Post story.

My favourite line from the Chamber was, "To say that program spending is out of control would be an understatement,"

When supposedly serious bodies like the Chamber of Commerce mistake the word 'understatement' for the word 'exaggeration', you can almost see their credibility dropping away - an aspect of this which Rob at 'One Damn Thing After Another' makes some good points about as well.

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Finally, I agree entirely with Andrew Spicer's take on some possible amendments to the Same Sex Marriage legislation aimed at placating the 'social conservatives' in the Liberal caucus. What he said.

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* A popular theory (generally attributed to economist Ronald Coase) holds that organizational size depends on transaction costs. If transactions between different parties have a high cost then it makes sense to get rid of the transaction cost by controlling both sides of the transaction. In this modern age with low transaction costs, one would expect companies to begin to shrink accordingly (since there are no longer as many situations where it is more efficient to have both sides of a transaction in-house).

Similarly, there is a certain amount of overhead in writing a blog post (coming up with a title, and pressing the publish button mainly). So when the individual entries are small enough, it makes sense to lump them together so as to keep the ratio of the transaction cost / to the cost of the post itself down to a reasonable level.

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Monday, May 16, 2005

Decision Time

Andrew Spicer had a good post up a few days ago talking about some of the different possible motivations for voting and coming up with a list of possible strategies:

"I could vote for the local representative...

1. ...of the party that I feel would do the best job if they form the government
2. ...of the party that I feel would do the best job if they form the government, but limited to those parties likely to the form the government
3. ...of the party that I feel has the best policy platform
4. ...of the party that I feel has presented a policy platform that best points the direction we should be moving (in order to send a message)
5. ...of the party that I feel has presented a policy that best addresses a very important single issue / set of issues (in order to send a message)
6. ...of the party that I feel is led by the best* potential Prime Minister
7. ...who I think is the best* among the candidates in my riding
8. ...who is most likely to beat the local representative of the party I want to prevent from forming the government

(* - I can think of many ways of defining "best" in this context, but the list is long enough already. Note that the numbers in the list are for reference only.)"


It's a pretty thorough list but the one thing I would add is the concept of looking beyond just the riding you live in and thinking about the results in the province (jurisdiction) as a whole.

For instance, here in B.C. I feel that the Liberal party is too far to the right in a number of areas but I still like the fact they generally want to make things work and get things done which can be important, especially when even clearly beneficial ideas face strong 'Not-in-my-backyard' challenges. Meanwhile I trust the NDP to do a better job making sure the laws aren't tilted too far in favour of corporations, ensuring public services are adequately funded and taking care of the poor and more vulnerable - but I don't trust them to keep spending growth to moderate levels, to make smart business decisions, to have the political will to make important projects happen or to avoid creating a lot of counter-productive unnecessarily complex regulation. Finally the Green Party has a lot of great ideas and makes for a nice break from the business vs. labour divide which plagues B.C. - but they also have a lot of really poor ideas which show that they haven't thought through all their policies (i.e. reducing tuition to 0).

So what does this have to do with voting? Well, just looking at my riding, I might be tempted to vote Liberal. But looking at the (expected) results for the province as a whole, I think that the Liberals are already likely to be overly represented in the legislature vs. how much I support their policies. So I am likely to vote for balance - that is, I will use my vote like a counter-weight, trying to move the overall result in the right direction, rather than simply voting for exactly what I support.

That still leaves the question of NDP vs. Green1. Right now I'm thinking Green. Partly because they seem more like a forward thinking party, but also because I believe a multi-party system is healthier than one with two big parties squaring off against each other since that can lead to the kind of polarization we've seen in the United States in recent years. But maybe I just like to vote for the underdog and would be better off voting for a party with a better chance of winning my riding (since it appears it may be close). I probably won't make a final decision until I'm in the booth.

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1I should note that I also considered the Democratic Reform party as well, but they seemed a little too unsettled for me. Beyond platitudes and pragmatism, I wasn't really sure what they stood for. Of course as far as I know they have no candidate in my riding anyway, so that part is easy.

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Sunday, January 16, 2005

Recommendation

Well the Blog awards may be over and the list of sites nominated still makes a good list of places to look for a good Canadian blog to read, but if you're looking for the best Canadian blog which wasn't nominated, then I would say, look here

Of course it's possible that I'm biased because it seems like every second or third time I write a post, it turns out that Andrew wrote something very similar a long time ago.

For example, consider my post from the other day on collective action problems and compare it to this post, one of the first things Andrew wrote on his blog (way) back in 2002.

I spent a good part of a rainy afternoon today reading through various posts from his long archive (once I realized that sometimes you have to scroll down a bit to see the post) and it's fascinating stuff, especially if you have an interest in Toronto politics, urban planning, collective action problems, Jane Jacobs, or Ontario politics (especially as they relate to Toronto), not to mention climate change, and federal politics

I'm thinking that, since I seem to channel Andrew's archives so often, it's a good bet that if you like this Blog you'll probably like his too.

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