B.C. Election Prediction

So, despite not having had a chance to pay proper attention and this being my first B.C. election (as a resident), I figured I'd take a crack at predicting the outcome.

Before I get started, here are some useful sites if you're into prognostication:

The Tyee's Battleground BC
Election prediction project
UBC Election Stock Market

I know Sacha at Double Blind said he was going to make predictions as well, but I don't want to look at his site until after I've made my own predictions so no link for now. Update (an hour later): OK, here's the link - predictions promised for 11 pm...

All right, on with my likely-to-be-way-off guesswork. The general outcome seems clear, a majority government for the Liberals, although I guess stranger things have happened than an upset tomorrow. Still, with commodity prices up across the board and the real estate market in good shape it would be a surprise to see any incumbent government get defeated. Time will tell if Campbell follows the Mulroney/Harris 'two right-wing terms and then toast' approach or of they are able to build something longer lasting in their second term.

For popular vote I'll say 11% for the Greens, 38% for the NDP and 47% for the Liberals (leaving 4% other).

I'm not going to try and predict the outcome of the STV referendum (can't even maintain a pretense of objectivity there - vote yes!) so all that leaves is predicting the individual seats. I'm not (alas) predicting any victories for anyone except the NDP or Liberals so I'll keep my typing to a minimum and just list the ridings I expect to go NDP:

(Note: the total comes to 57 for the Liberals and 22 for the NDP)

Alberni-Qualicum
Burnaby North
Comox Valley
Cowichan-Ladysmith
Esquimalt-Metchosin
Malahat-Juan De Fuca
Nanaimo
Nelson-Creston
New Westminster
North Coast
Port-Coquitlam/Burke Mountain
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Surrey-Green Timbers
Surrey-Whalley
Vancouver-Burrard
Vancouver-Hastings
Vancouver Kensington
Vancouver Kingsway
Vancouver Mount Pleasant
Victoria Beacon Hill
Victoria Hillside
West Kootenay-Boundary

My own riding (Vancouver-Fairview) was actually one of my toughest decisions, but I'll give it to Virginia Greene by a nose. Surrey Newton should be an interesting race as well. It will also be interesting to see how Tom Merino does on the Malahat. Of course, now that I've made my prediction I have to decide how I should vote...

B.C. election televised debate

If, like me, you didn't watch the debate last night (I don't even have cable at the moment, plus I figure that TV and politics shouldn't mix - what's your excuse?), or you just want to see some commentary on what you saw, try here, here or here.

To me, televised debates always seem like a triumph of medium over message and the media coverage of them generally makes me feel sad for the state of our country so I tend to avoid them even when I do have cable. But at the same time I typically find all-candidates meetings to be fascinating and very worthwhile. I don't know if being there in person makes a difference or if it's just that the cautious, stick to the party line, try to get your opponent off their game approach which being on TV enforces makes leadership debates dull and irritating.

Plagiarized B.C. Election Notes

The Green Party has released their platform, as has the NDP

I haven't had a chance to look at them yet, but ainge, over at lotusland has a look at the Green platform, and Sacha at Double Blind has some comments on the NDP.

Best line from ainge (on taxing junk food): "the civil libertarian inside me screams, 'let them eat cake' but ultimately, this platform does need to be financed, so let's make teenagers and fat people pick up the tab."

Now that's pragmatism!

Best line from Sacha (on the large picture of Carole James on the front of the NDP platform): "Whoever put that picture there needs to learn that you need to make sure the entire face is lit, since the shadows on the left hand side make her seem ominous and scary." (it's true).

Sacha's also on the lookout for a copy of the 2001 B.C. NDP platform (don't look at me, I didn't even live in B.C. then!) in case you have an electronic version lying around on your hard drive (or know where to find it online).