20/20 Hindsight

Every now and then I run across some economic forecast from 2006/2007. They are almost always amusing, and a good reminder not to take any of the current prognostications about the economy (in either direction) too seriously.

Here's the TD 'Consumer Pulse' from January 7, 2007 which offers the following insight:

"It is evident that around the world there has been a general trend towards consumers carrying more debt. This is partly a reflection of a sustained low inflation and interest rate environment. However, the accumulation of debt has largely been a rational decision, which is why repeated fears of a consumer-led financial crisis have proven unfounded."

Oops. Maybe not so rational after all.

People often seem to confuse the fact that something hasn't happened yet, with an argument that it won't or can't happen.