Crawl Across the Ocean

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Random Thought For the Day

Is it just me, or are we about 60% of the way through the slowest, most cautious change of government in the history of the first-past-the-post electoral system?

Or are we just at the starting point of one of the most transient, unsubstantial, change-of-government-just-so-we-can-say-we-did-it, changes of government in the history of the first-past-the-post electoral system?


  • Well, if its the 2nd, we've got to beat Joe Clark 1979 - I personally think Harper probably has a bit more than 6 months in him.

    By Blogger one-dimensional man, at 5:33 PM  

  • Good point, good point, although I did give myself some wiggle room by saying 'one of the' in my second scenario.

    By Blogger Declan, at 6:20 PM  

  • I think it's really up to Harper.

    I he continues to run a disciplined party, stays well within his mandate -- meaning no significant changes -- then he may well have a two year opportunity to change minds.

    On the other hand, I think the Canadian electorate is skittish enough that a serious mis-step ( eg pursuing socon agenda items, invading Iran ... ) would leave him in big trouble.

    I don't the Liberals will be in any hurry -- absent a very compelling boo boo by the CPC -- to call another election. They're broke and their fund raising capacity is compromised, they need to pick a decent leader, and that leader needs to establsih his street creds as a leader.

    I think Harper's got 2 years to do something but not too much.

    By Blogger KevinG, at 7:27 PM  

  • Do you think it's possible that we'll have some form of proportional representation coming through under this government?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:00 AM  

  • Arwen - In a word, no.

    Both the Liberals and the Bloc will go to the wall to prevent proportional representation from passing and together they have the balance of power.

    Plus, I don't think the Conservatives are all that keen on it either.

    The beauty of the current system is that it is heavily biased to overrepresent its defenders while marginalizing any potential opponents (which explains why it has hung on so long despite being so deeply and obviously flawed)

    By Blogger Declan, at 11:45 AM  

  • *sigh* - if only the NDP had won two more seats.

    Always the bridesmaid, never the bride..

    By Blogger one-dimensional man, at 12:19 PM  

  • Well, here's the thing:

    Harper can't be sworn in as PM until the Chief Electoral Office receives all the official ballots and verifies the count. That should be done by the end of this week.

    The outgoing cabinet also has to brief their staff on outstanding issues that the new administration needs to take care off. Depending on the size of the ministry, that also should be finished by the end of the week.

    The moveout of the Martins from 24 Sussex can't be done until Paul locates some storage space for personal belongings and starts the house-hunting process (he can stay at a hotel until then). The residence should be ready for occupation by Monday.

    Harper has to figure out how many ministers he needs in cabinet, and arrange a date with the GG and the Clerk of the Privy Council (the other CPC) to get them sworn in. That's what Derek Burney's for, and you can figure that to take up to next week.

    Factor in office and staff relocations, housing for new MPs, etc., and you figure Parliament won't be able to start until March.

    By Blogger VW, at 1:26 PM  

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