Crawl Across the Ocean

Monday, May 16, 2005

B.C. Election Prediction

So, despite not having had a chance to pay proper attention and this being my first B.C. election (as a resident), I figured I'd take a crack at predicting the outcome.

Before I get started, here are some useful sites if you're into prognostication:

The Tyee's Battleground BC
Election prediction project
UBC Election Stock Market

I know Sacha at Double Blind said he was going to make predictions as well, but I don't want to look at his site until after I've made my own predictions so no link for now. Update (an hour later): OK, here's the link - predictions promised for 11 pm...

All right, on with my likely-to-be-way-off guesswork. The general outcome seems clear, a majority government for the Liberals, although I guess stranger things have happened than an upset tomorrow. Still, with commodity prices up across the board and the real estate market in good shape it would be a surprise to see any incumbent government get defeated. Time will tell if Campbell follows the Mulroney/Harris 'two right-wing terms and then toast' approach or of they are able to build something longer lasting in their second term.

For popular vote I'll say 11% for the Greens, 38% for the NDP and 47% for the Liberals (leaving 4% other).

I'm not going to try and predict the outcome of the STV referendum (can't even maintain a pretense of objectivity there - vote yes!) so all that leaves is predicting the individual seats. I'm not (alas) predicting any victories for anyone except the NDP or Liberals so I'll keep my typing to a minimum and just list the ridings I expect to go NDP:

(Note: the total comes to 57 for the Liberals and 22 for the NDP)

Burnaby North
Comox Valley
Malahat-Juan De Fuca
New Westminster
North Coast
Port-Coquitlam/Burke Mountain
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Surrey-Green Timbers
Vancouver Kensington
Vancouver Kingsway
Vancouver Mount Pleasant
Victoria Beacon Hill
Victoria Hillside
West Kootenay-Boundary

My own riding (Vancouver-Fairview) was actually one of my toughest decisions, but I'll give it to Virginia Greene by a nose. Surrey Newton should be an interesting race as well. It will also be interesting to see how Tom Merino does on the Malahat. Of course, now that I've made my prediction I have to decide how I should vote...

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