Might be Nothing, But...

So I voted again yesterday (and will vote yet again next week, it's a busy election season). The occasion for the vote was the Provincial byelection for the Downtown Vancouver riding vacated by Lorne Mayencourt as part of his quixotic attempt to be elected as a Conservative in downtown Vancouver during the federal election.

In addition to the downtown vote, a second byelection was held in the almost-downtown Fairview riding. Both were won by the NDP, but the results don't affect the balance of power and the newly elected members won't be around for long before the General Provincial Election next May.

The only thing that really piqued my interest in the results of the byelections was that the B.C. Conservative Party ran candidates in both byelections and got over 4% support in each riding.

I'd never heard of the B.C. Conservative party so I looked up their results from the 2005 election and saw that they obtained a mere 0.55% of the popular vote - which is pretty pitiful - *except* they only ran 7 candidates in the 79 ridings, so in those 7 ridings, they actually averaged about 6% support, getting close to 10% in the two Okanagan ridings they ran in. 10% support for a party that only ran 7 candidates and had 0 profile, organization or money to spend.

So I don't want to read too much into byelection results, but if the B.C. Conservatives are able to get 4% of the vote in downtown Vancouver, how much support could they get across B.C. if they run candidates in areas (like the Okanagan, home to Stockwell Day) where the Federal Conservative party gets over 50% of the popular vote regularly. Especially considering that these areas are filled with clueless right wingers angry about the carbon tax but unwilling to vote for the NDP?

The polls suggest a close election battle between the Liberal and the NDP. A Conservative party that manages to get itself organized long enough to run candidates in a reasonable number of ridings (30+?) could potentially average 10% in the areas they run and could split off enough Liberal votes to elect the NDP in a number of ridings.

The possibilities look similar to the 1996 election when the B.C. reform party split enough of the right wing vote to allow the NDP to form a majority with less than 40% of the popular vote (the Liberals got 42% and Reform got 9%). It's funny that B.C.'s ruling conservative party (the Liberals) could end up losing an election because of their name. And ironic that that outcome (which I only throw out as a possiblity, not a likelihood) could have been avoided had Campbell not set the absurdly high 60% threshold for passage of electoral reform in the referendum held in conjunction with the last election. I might just have to make a donation to the (B.C.) Conservative cause...

Just Under the Wire

I see that B.C. Hydro has introduced a two tier set of rates whereby anyone using more than 1,350kwh of electricity over two months will be charged a higher rate. I checked my consumption and my highest two month period over the last two years topped out at around 450kwh, so there's not too much to worry about on a personal front, I guess.

In general, it seems like a smart way to cut overall electricity use. One concern is that in the long run we're better off using electricity (which is generally renewable here in B.C.) than natural gas (which isn't) and this rule might encourage people to stick with gas rather than electric heat for their houses.

Another concern is that it might have been more fair/effective to vary the target based on region as some parts of the province (Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island) have a climate that makes it much easier to stay under this threshold and other parts of the province have a climate that makes it pretty difficult.

Of course, higher consumption is higher consumption, but the incentive to conserve won't be very effective in areas where everyone can easily stay below the limit without conserving, nor in areas where even exceptional efforts aren't enough to reduce the usage below the threshold.

On the other hand, maybe the rule provides some compensation for us poor Vancouverites forced to live in little apartments due to high (albeit falling!) housing prices, while folks in other parts of the province can take advantage of slightly less crazy housing prices to buy detached homes...

Because it's different here / this time / etc.

Via the comments at Vancouver Condo Info, here's a funny article from the CBC on how B.C. is protected from any fallout from the economic problems, with the biggest concern being that people might lose a little confidence because they see all the negative headlines.

"On Tuesday morning the main Canadian index, the S&P/TSX composite, was up 337 points to 12,467 by 11 a.m. ET after it had tumbled 605 points on Monday, while the U.S. market opened with a nosedive after being closed on Monday for a holiday.

Mutual funds and other investments are taking a hit, but B.C.'s economy is relatively protected, say economists.

"We have this commodity and construction boom of epic proportions which is keeping the western provinces essentially at full employment," Aron Gampel, the deputy chief economist of Scotiabank told CBC on Monday."

So the U.S. is going into (is already in) a recession, but it won't affect B.C. because of the commodity boom (and these commodities are being sold to who, exactly?).

Meanwhile, how long will 'a construction boom of epic proportions' last when house prices drop in B.C. like they did in the U.S.?

Consider this chart of U.S. housing starts.

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"SFU business professor Lindsay Meredith sees no black clouds on B.C.'s economic horizon. And he predicts consumers — especially cross-border shoppers — might actually benefit if retailers in the U.S. begin slashing prices."

So, if people cross the border to do their shopping somewhere else, that will be *good* for the B.C. economy? OK then.

I've heard of 'every cloud has a silver lining', but sometimes it seems like the media in B.C. thinks that clouds are actually made of pure silver. The fact is, sooner or later we'll see the impacts of a U.S./global slowdown here in B.C.

For example: Canfor closing two mills in Fort Nelson, B.C. ... "The PolarBoard oriented strand board mill and the Tackama plywood mill are closing indefinitely, with the firm blaming poor wood product markets"