Crawl Across the Ocean

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Idle Speculation

Back in July of 2007 I predicted that, "prices will peak in Vancouver before end of 2008."

What's my point? None really, just that I was right.

Anyways, while I'm on the topic of speculation, here's an amusing marketing flyer release from a local real estate developer (via Vancouver Condo Info).

From the flyer:

"$150 million portfolio of prime completed real estate located throughout the Lower Mainland will be sold, at prices far below market value."

...

"What are the homes being discounted??
Aggressive speculators lined up overnight at launches to scoop up prime units and then could not flip them before completion. Many could not afford to complete and lost 15% deposits. Much of the available inventory is made up of these homes."


Ouch.

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posted by Declan at Thursday, January 15, 2009

6 Comments:

  • What's my point? None really, just that I was right.

    You go, Declan!

    Could I ask you to pick my lottery numbers next week, please ? ? ? ? :)

    By Blogger West End Bob, at 10:07 PM  

  • Time to ready that $150/sqft bid, eh?

    It'll be a couple years at least before this all plays out.

    By Blogger Sacha, at 10:27 PM  

  • Sadly, the lottery, as far as I know, is truly random, whereas the housing market was pretty predictable.

    Sacha, yeah, housing market downturns tend to span years, not months, could be a long time before this one hits bottom. The U.S. started dropping a good 2 years before we did and they haven't hit bottom yet.

    I could probably be convinced to bid $150/sq. ft. for a nice place in the Olympic Village with a view of False Creek. Although if prices get that low, many places may have been burned down by roaming mobs of angry strata dwellers, so it might be a no-win.

    By Blogger Declan, at 10:03 PM  

  • Nope, you only get a 6 marks out of a possible 10 because, while you did show your work, you didn't include the global credit catastrophe step ;)

    By Blogger KevinG, at 7:26 AM  

  • Yeah, if it hadn't been for the credit crunch, Vancouver prices could have gone up forever!

    But really, prices here peaked in March and Harper was still preaching that all was well in October so I don't really see the relevance, other than that the downside of the bubble will be even more painful than it was already going to be...

    By Blogger Declan, at 6:58 PM  

  • Yeah, if it hadn't been for the credit crunch, Vancouver prices could have gone up forever!

    Well, depending on the time frame you're looking at and how long you think forever is, that's essentially true. Not very comforting if you just spent $850 a sq foot for a condo that won't be worth that again for a while though.

    other than that the downside of the bubble will be even more painful than it was already going to be...

    That was the point.

    By Blogger KevinG, at 7:28 AM  

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